RIO DE JANEIRO Ė Analysts revised on Monday their 2019 gross domestic product (GDP) forecasts for Brazil downward to 0.93 percent, a figure below the levels achieved in 2017 and 2018, when the economy expanded by 1.1 percent each year, the Central Bank said Monday.
This is the lowest forecast produced by private-sector analysts and economists this year for Brazil, which is still trying to recover from the severe recession of 2015-2016.
Brazilís economy contracted by 3.5 percent in 2015, the worst performance in 25 years, and another 3.5 percent in 2016, marking the first time since 1931 that the GDP fell for two consecutive years.
The GDP estimates come from the Boletin Focus, a weekly Central Bank survey of analysts from more than 100 private financial institutions on the state of the national economy.
This is the 16th week in a row in which analysts have revised their GDP forecasts downward, taking the figure from 1 percent to 0.93 percent in the latest survey.
Analysts also cut their economic growth forecast from 2.5 percent to 2.2 percent for 2020, but they left their GDP projection for 2021 and 2022 unchanged at 2.5 percent.
The private-sector analystsí forecasts came out following the release of the Central Bankís Index of Economic Activity, which is used as a gauge of the GDP number released quarterly.
The index declined 0.47 percent in April, compared to the previous month, the Central Bank said.
The Brazilian economy, according to the Central Bank, contracted 0.62 percent in April, compared to April 2018, but inched up 0.06 percent between January and April, and was up 0.72 percent over the past 12 months.
Brazilís economy grew an anemic 0.50 percent in the first quarter, compared to the same period last year, but the GDP fell 0.20 percent, compared to the fourth quarter of 2018, resulting in the first quarter-on-quarter contraction since the end of 2016.
In the first quarter, GDP totaled 1.4 trillion reais (about $350 billion) in real terms.
The markets are eying potential passage of pension reform, a measure that rightist President Jair Bolsonaro says is a crucial step in lowering a high budget deficit and getting the economy back on track.
Bolsonaro has warned of an economic collapse in the coming years if Congress does not pass pension reform.