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  HOME | Opinion (Click here for more)

Carlos Alberto Montaner: What is Donald Trump Going to Do? Post-Election Panorama in the US
Latin American genius Carlos Alberto Montaner breaks down the US' post-election as the transition period continues to welcome the new president.

By Carlos Alberto Montaner

The US election law is so confusing that it is preferable to write this article in Q&A form.

What will happen on January 6, 2021?

The US Congress will convene in Washington DC to certify what the Electoral College has said. It is possible to make allegations in the three previous days. The accusations of fraud will be heard there.

But was there or was there not electoral fraud?

It seems there was not. There were irregularities, something that is common when there are almost 160 million voters, but there was not a fraud that could alter the election results. Fifty-six courts rejected the claims for lack of evidence. There were even judges appointed by Trump who unanimously refused to take the complaints seriously.

However, there are intelligent and reasonable people who assure there was fraud.

That’s true, but they have not presented evidence, it’s just speculation. “Sworn statements” are not evidence. I have seen a photo of a truck that allegedly contained six million manipulated ballots. The truck was black and had a sign that said “Black Men Vote Org” I don’t think that whoever commits a crime of that kind would announce it. Even the Supreme Court, which has a conservative majority, rejected these complaints unanimously.

Has the election been stolen from Donald Trump? He insists he won the election.

Trump insists he won with the “valid votes” in the swing states. And he would want mail-in ballots removed. The mail-in ballots are supposedly the “invalid ballots.” That is an absurd arbitrariness. Trump doesn’t want them to be eliminated where he won, as in Florida, where even he voted by mail, but in the states where he lost. States impose their election laws. Voting by mail is one of them.

Isn’t it strange there are so many more Democratic than Republican votes in the mail?

No. Democrats, as a general rule, were much more cautious than Republicans regarding crowds. Remember that we are in the coronavirus era. The president himself encouraged a division between Republicans, who did not believe in the danger of the virus, and Democrats, like Biden, who hid in basements. It is logical many more Democrats voted by mail.

What will happen on January 20?

On January 20, 2021 nothing will happen. At noon, as established by the Constitution, Joe Biden and Kamala Harris will enter the White House. On December 14, everything was decided. The Electoral College, as was its duty, acted in accordance with the voters’ instructions.

Is there another way for Trump to stay in the White House?

I don’t think so. In 1804 a “contingent election” was approved for those cases in which there was a tie, but this is not what happened in 2020. The Democratic formula, Biden-Harris, won 306 electoral votes against 232 for Republicans Trump-Pence. Also, Biden-Harris received 81 million votes compared to 74 million for Trump-Pence. In any case, as the voting is indirect and the voters select the 538 people who make up the Electoral College, it’s worth noting it was the same proportion of votes with which the Republicans won in 2016.

Why does Trump leave the door open to an eventual triumph against Biden?

There are several reasons. First, Trump has fueled among his supporters the idea he has been the victim of a plot. He is not willing to deny that falsehood under any circumstance. Sixty eight percent of his followers believe it. He prefers to leave the White House as a victim of the “Deep State,” one of his superstitions, inoculated by Steve Bannon, rather than defeated by Biden.

Second, there is a major financial revenue that would allow him to reinvent himself as a politician and, if the Republicans abandon him, form his own party.

Third, because of what his niece, Dr. Mary L. Trump, a psychologist, repeats tirelessly. He is physiologically incapable of losing to another human being.

What if he doesn’t leave the White House?

He will leave. Russian President Vladimir Putin and US Senate majority leader Mitch McConnell have already congratulated Biden. They would not have done it if they knew that Trump was going to chain himself to the presidential armchair. Some have said his wife Melania was near Miami looking for a school for Barron, the youngest of Trump’s children. His daughter and his son-in-law bought a large parcel of land on an exclusive Miami Beach island. Those who know the rules affirm the lot can comfortably accommodate two mansions.
 

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