CARACAS – The COVID-19 pandemic in Venezuela, with an average of 1,000 new cases per day according to figures by the Nicolás Maduro regime, may get a whole lot worse over the next months, especially in December, a month that may record an alarming 14,000 daily cases according to forecasts by scientists of the Academy of Physical, Mathematical and Natural Sciences, an institution created in 1917 and headquartered in Caracas.
“Despite the Government’s efforts (…) the figures being released by them are insufficient for the effective monitoring of the pandemic and the estimates of its real dimensions,” the Academy said in a report released on Wednesday afternoon.
In this respect, the experts claimed that it is necessary to establish an effective detection method that “takes no longer than three days,” with the aim of locating and identifying the virus hotspots as soon as possible. “The percentage of positive patients is very high (…) the number of positive tests does not reflect the real number of infected people.”
The report also said that the delay in the delivery of results on the disease in the country has been estimated between five and eight days and, depending on the region, these may “take up to 15 days.”
Likewise, the Academy pointed out that more than 7,000 people got infected every day during the last week of August. “That represents a sixfold increase in cases reported in Venezuela on a daily basis.”
“We believe that we have exceeded 4,000 daily cases today, without any evidence of change in the sickness’ upward trajectory,” said the report.
In May, the Academy released a first report forecasting a peak between 1,000 and 4,000 daily cases. Surprisingly, the forecast was met on August 12 and the Maduro regime had to admit for the first time more than 1,000 cases in only 24 hours.
“The mathematical models are effective tools not only for calculating the dimension of the pandemic, but for the design of relaxation for control measures.”