Various institutions and social researchers at both national and international level have been analyzing the possible turns the Venezuelan crisis may take. There are a variety of options ranging from the possible rectification of the Government in its economic policies, a social upheaval, a military coup or a foreign intervention.
If the analysis of all possible scenarios is adopted as a methodology, it is understandable that the range of alternatives will offer all the imaginable variables, including the study of experiences of transitions from authoritarian or dictatorial regimes to democratic regimes; such investigations include a dedicated work that may serve as guidance to understand Venezuela's own reality.
A quick look at these transitions that may have some similarities with the nation's process, idiosyncrasy and history allows us to jump to the first important conclusions: each process presents original and unprecedented characteristics in relation to others, regardless of similar traits. Not all events evolve in line with the forecasts of a plan. The political leadership must have the flexibility to adapt to unforeseen situations and outline the conduct in accordance with such situations.
The change of regimes implies that the forces of renewal must lay the foundations for ensuring governance and stability of the democratic alternative and reconciliation which requires, not only as necessary but essential, the support of sectors and individualities that have differed and dissented from the political practice of the regime in spite of having supported it over certain periods.
The successful experiences from other countries in the region (Chile among others) have been characterized by incorporating elements such as those mentioned here. What's more, some of those elements have already been present during the transition from dictatorial regimes to democratic governments in Venezuela's own history.
The dogmas of faith, as well as the rigidity and inflexibility, have not been the formula that policy directions have selected to carry out the transition processes, on the contrary they have contradicted the indications of the pre-established recipes that some have tried to impose in the form of manuals.
The wealth of the social and political struggle always incorporates in its experiences innovative elements that cannot be dismissed, particularly a comprehensive vision of the current situation. Pompeyo Márquez, a late politician and founding member of Venezuela's Movement toward Socialism (MAS) party, used to warn when discussing this kind of issues that "you have to leave something to life."
The democratic, constitutional and peaceful strategy to challenge authoritarianism demands creativity and actions that avoid violence and evade the Government's repressive action. This is easier said than done, because meeting these premises considering the nation's permanent political behavior involves complexities that necessarily have to be assumed.
The situation of Venezuela requires the political leadership of the country to cope with the challenges of the present. The crisis is getting worse and the clock is ticking. These challenges cannot afford the slowness with which decisions are being made or the members of the opposition making up their minds on overcoming their existing differences. In the meantime, the Government remains wedded to the continuation of its policies to wreak havoc in all social sectors in the midst of the most serious crisis that contemporary Venezuela has gone through.