RIO DE JANEIRO – Brazil, Spain, Germany and France are the most probable teams to win the 2018 FIFA World Cup in Russia, according to a mathematical analysis developed by the School of Applied Mathematics at the Brazilian Fundaçao Getulio Vargas (FGV).
Nearly a million simulations were processed from the goals scored and conceded in the last four years in every match of the 207 FIFA-affiliated teams, according to the study.
According to the calculations, the probability of Brazil conquering its sixth world title is 21 percent, while that of Spain stands at 13.5 percent.
Germany comes next with 11.4 percent, followed by France with 9.5 percent, Argentina with 8.5 percent, Portugal with 5 percent, England with 4.8 percent, Belgium with 4.3 percent and Sweden with 3.8 percent.
Japan, according to the study, is least likely to become the champion, with only 0.1 percent of probability.
Moacyr Alvim, analyst and co-author of the study, explained that although Brazil is the favorite, this does not mean it has a high chance of winning, adding it is important to note that mathematically “this year, we have a 79 percent chance of not ranking first.”
The analysis of the attacks in the matches of the last four years allowed the FGV to establish Brazil as the most probable team to win, followed by Spain, Germany and France.
Brazil also has the best defense rate, which is what put it ahead of Spain in the calculations.
According to the study, the possibility of Brazil finishing first in the group stage of the 2018 World Cup, which includes Switzerland, Serbia and Costa Rica, and qualifying to the round of 16 is 76.5 percent.